It’s an evening game of ice hockey in Milan on February 19th, 2026. Ask any Team USA fan about the women’s team and they have given up. The most powerful offensive in women’s hockey had been held lifeless for 57 minutes by Team Canada in the gold-medal game for women’s ice hockey. On a last ditch attempt to tie the game, Laila Edwards lines up a shot from the point directly toward the net, aiming toward the net but with Hilary Knight nicely in front of the net for a potential deflection.
Three days later, in the men’s gold-medal game the Canadian Men would find themselves on an uncharacteristic US Defensive breakdown, exploiting a gap to find a glorious feed between Macklin Celebrini and Nathan MacKinnon with US Goalie Connor Hellebuyck caught facing the wrong way. His feet are planted incorrectly. In a game, deep in the 3rd Period, with the US retreating constantly into a defensive cocoon, a goal here on the half-open net would bring Canada the dagger to stab the US.
Knight tips in the pass to tie the game for the US 1-1 and force overtime, where the women would win 2-1.
Nathan MacKinnon shoots his puck into the netting on the wrong side. The US would eventually win in overtime 2-1.
On the surface, it’s two different gold-medal games between the two different hockey superpowers in the two different genders. The score was identical, the outcome the same. The discourse, however, couldn’t be more different. The women fought for their victory, they cried. The men got extremely lucky.
Let’s stop right there, and take a recap of today, but from the lens of history, as we answer a question on the role of luck in sports.
And Connor Hellebuyck? He becomes much more important later in our recap.
…
Open Google, type in “luck” for me.
According to the Oxford Dictionary, “luck” is success or failure brought about by chance instead of one’s own actions. We can apply it to anything, really. In an RPG, we build our character statistics by assigning “skill points” to players, and for some chaos, we give all our skill points into the “luck” category, making a relatively weak but incredibly fun player that is bailed out by incredible luck (or incredible amounts of bullshit). You can get lucky in the manner of forgetting to do something to help you get out of a disaster (the people who forgot to set their alarms to come into the WTC on the morning of 9/11- a classic example). Anything that you don’t influence, they say, can be influenced by “luck”.
Of course, you can somewhat control your luck. In the RPG, you have the choice on where to distribute those skill points, and not all the points have to go into luck. You can actively make lifestyle choices that place more of the outcomes of life on your own actions rather than blind faith. You can be prepared to personally face the things this world throws at your feet.
None of this, however, takes into account that there is more than just you in this world. There are 8 billion human beings on this Earth right now, each with different motivations, lifestyles, political inclinations, etc. All will do things the way they want to, and you have no influence over them. It is truly “chance” on which version of your colleagues or strangers you will interact with on a daily basis. Your boss may be in a foul mood, cancelling the work party you had planned. Or he may be in a great mood, approving bonuses all around.
The above thinking can be applied to sports. You can do so much preparation and training for a competition/event, but you are only a small factor in a game, and your opponent’s actions are the other factor.
Even if the outside world is unpredictable, you can try to keep your end as impeccable and as chance-free as possible. You show up to work everyday, with all of the papers and readings studied. You put your finest foot forward during meetings with a professional outlook that would make LinkedIn users weep with prideful tears. You eat healthy and exercise so that you’re at your finest for your professional and family life. In a normal world, you don’t want to rely on others working toward your satisfaction. You must do most of the work so you don’t rely on the “chance” circumstances of your coworkers.
The same can be applied to sports as well. Cinderella championship runs usually fall flat because they were too reliant on circumstance rather than forging their own path. Slovakia, a decent team at this year’s men’s ice-hockey tournament, looked very unbeatable, until they met the US in the semi-final, a team much better than them no matter how Slovakia prepared. The 2003 Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, running off of unprepared teams and the form of netminder Jean-Sebastien Giguire, finally lost the Stanley Cup Finals to the New Jersey Devils, who were just better than them.
There is no shame for either of these teams. They were weaker teams that took advantage of their circumstances to make something burn bright. And burn bright they did. But behind the burning, there was much to suggest that the success was built off of their own skill, but a deep reliance on the bad preparation and work of others. Slovakia topped their relatively easy group at this year’s Olympics. The Mighty Ducks had an easy path to the Cup final where the Minnesota Wild, the team they defeated in the conference final, had already defeated the conference champion favorite Colorado Avalanche before them.
The point is that you need to be able to be self-sufficient without needing to constantly rely on luck. But there is a theory that has been brewing in the back of my mind. If you’re so good, can you just create your own luck?
Teams that are great have one common thing in common. They are the primary dictators of pace and play in the games they play. When they do get lucky, people decry them as “getting lucky” or “the bullshit is real” (A popular cope where I’m from), but when you’re a good team, you’ll find ways to constantly put teams under pressure or on the ropes early. The Super-Bowl winning teams that the Kansas City Chiefs are a good example of my theory. Many have accused the NFL of biased refereeing toward their “golden boy” the Chiefs. However, when breaking this argument down, one will realize that their championship teams were incredibly talented. The amount of chances they created on offensive and defensive scenarios were so numerous there was bound to be a little bit of pro-Chiefs luck occurring in all those games. If you’re good, you’ll naturally find lucky moments through sheer overwhelming force.
There are examples of this in every sport. The 2024-25 Florida Panthers, reviled (I hate this goddamn team so much) was a four-line monster that through sheer physical force, got lucky referee breaks and teams openly struggling to counter them so often that they could skewer these moments onto a BBQ split and grill them over the Stanley Cup. In golf, Tiger Woods was so skilled that if you gave him the chance to play for a win, he would find a way to steal wins away because he was that dominant and consistent with the golf clubs.
If you’re good enough, you’ll naturally get more opportunities. Get more opportunities, and you’ll manufacture your own luck.
It’s February 17th, 2026 again, and we’re on minute 57 of the Women’s Gold-Medal Ice Hockey match between the US and Canada. The US might be on death’s door, but if you watched the game, you know that despite the US not being clinical, they’ve been knocking on the door. The deflection from Knight to tie the game felt inevitable. But in a way, they built their own luck. The “knocking” at the door was from an incredible shot volume. And on that one shot from Edwards past Knight, the US got their own luck. Canada, a long last, let the foot off the gas and allowed Knight to slip into position and deflect the puck up past an Ann-Renee Desbiens that had been lights out beforehand. Twenty minutes later, Megan Keller would produce one of the silkiest evasion moves of all time to destroy the ankles of Claire Thompson and poking the puck into the net, past a goalie and team that was already demoralized for coming so close to victory.
But two days later, in the men’s final, you find Nathan MacKinnon with his stick betraying him, shooting wide left on a very plump chance. You find Devon Toews, right inside of the goalie crease, being stopped by one of the greatest desperation saves from a goalie of all time. After Canada tied the game, Canada spent the next 22 minutes bringing hell down on the US defense. Chance after chance was brushed aside as the US hunkered down around Hellebuyck, who would end the day with 41/42 shots saved.
It’s hard to define what this game was. In a game where the US was thoroughly outplayed, the MacKinnon miss seemed to define the day of unbelievably excruciating pain for Team Canada. The US didn’t win because they were better, many cried. They won because Canada didn’t finish properly.
The above argument presented by many in Canada is complete and utter cow crud. The United States was considered the only team that was considered to even hold a candle to the Canadians in terms of power. The Canadians, in fact, defeated Italy and France earlier in the tournament by huge margins.
But the US was widely outplayed, and during the game, was outshot a lot. You can’t describe it as a better team outplaying the other.
But a team is made of individuals, and today, Connor Hellebuyck decided to be that man. The paddle save of Hellebuyck on Toews should be hung in the Smithsonian for time eternal (I already have it printed out. Fight me.). When the team fails, sometimes, the strong will of a man to succeed will create all the luck for himself. And on the 22nd of February, 2026, Connor decided to bring his will and end 40 years of wandering in the wilderness for US Hockey. He was unstoppable that night.
Another individual stepped up that day. Two actually. The men from Michigan. Zach Werenski, and Jack Hughes (yes, he is dating Tate McRae. Am I jealous? Kind of.). Zach Werenski had watched like a hawk during the first minute of overtime Connor McDavid attempting to end the game on his own stick, “heroballing” the puck with speed, attempting to find the net. As the puck began to travel the other way, Hughes went for a risky pass up the ice, with Cale Makar and Zach Werenski racing for the puck. Werenski was just a smidge faster, another piece of luck shining through for the American D-man. After battling with MacKinnon for the puck for a few seconds, he feeds Jack Hughes to make the game winning shot.
This game was by no means a comprehensive victory. As a matter of fact, it was a psychological and defensive struggle that made me question why I was a hockey fan, or why this southern boy fell in love with the game. I actively felt a few heartbeats skip as I watched this on a “suspicious” stream on my laptop.
The men and women of the US Hockey Team made this luck for themselves. They proved to Canada and the world of hockey that they were ready to fight for gold. The years of darkness for US Hockey was over. These men and women were ready to fight and dominate at the top of the competition.
However, even if you’re dominant, the other team might be just better than you. Sometimes, just sometimes, Lady Luck herself might push the shooting stick of a sniper just a few inches the other way. Just sometimes. Prepare all you want, account for your weakness, and they will account for their weaknesses. Lady Luck herself remains undefeated. Oh yeah, Hannah Bilka MY GOAT
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